周三(3月25日),國際原油期貨價格顯著收低,主要受地緣政治局勢緩和預期影響。截至收盤,紐約商品交易所5月交割的WTI原油期貨下跌2.03美元,報每桶90.32美元,跌幅2.2%;倫敦洲際交易所5月交割的布倫特原油期貨下跌2.27美元,報每桶102.22美元,跌幅2.17%。但在今日亞太早盤交易中,市場出現反彈,顯示市場情緒仍在激烈博弈。
當dang前qian市shi場chang的de核he心xin焦jiao點dian仍reng集ji中zhong於yu中zhong東dong地di緣yuan局ju勢shi。美mei國guo提ti出chu一yi項xiang旨zhi在zai通tong過guo談tan判pan解jie決jue與yu伊yi朗lang問wen題ti的de提ti議yi,這zhe一yi消xiao息xi直zhi接jie觸chu發fa了le原yuan油you期qi貨huo的de拋pao售shou。白bai宮gong新xin聞wen秘mi書shu卡ka羅luo琳lin・萊維特證實,相關談判“仍在繼續且富有成效”,美(mei)國(guo)總(zong)統(tong)特(te)朗(lang)普(pu)已(yi)因(yin)此(ci)指(zhi)示(shi)國(guo)防(fang)部(bu)暫(zan)緩(huan)對(dui)伊(yi)朗(lang)電(dian)力(li)及(ji)能(neng)源(yuan)基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)的(de)打(da)擊(ji)。受(shou)此(ci)影(ying)響(xiang),市(shi)場(chang)前(qian)期(qi)計(ji)入(ru)的(de)極(ji)端(duan)風(feng)險(xian)溢(yi)價(jia)開(kai)始(shi)部(bu)分(fen)回(hui)吐(tu)。高(gao)盛(sheng)在(zai)最(zui)新(xin)報(bao)告(gao)中(zhong)指(zhi)出(chu),若(ruo)軍(jun)事(shi)行(xing)動(dong)隨(sui)時(shi)終(zhong)止(zhi),將(jiang)降(jiang)低(di)全(quan)球(qiu)原(yuan)油(you)價(jia)格(ge)中(zhong)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)溢(yi)價(jia)。
盡jin管guan談tan判pan消xiao息xi導dao致zhi油you價jia下xia跌die,但dan跌die幅fu相xiang對dui受shou限xian,核he心xin原yuan因yin在zai於yu伊yi朗lang方fang麵mian保bao持chi審shen慎shen態tai度du。伊yi朗lang外wai長chang阿e拉la格ge齊qi明ming確que表biao示shi,雖sui然ran德de黑hei蘭lan正zheng在zai研yan究jiu美mei國guo通tong過guo友you好hao國guo家jia傳chuan遞di的de提ti議yi,但dan雙shuang方fang目mu前qian僅jin是shi“交流信息”,bingbuyiweizheyumeiguozhankaitanpan。zhezhongweimiaodewaijiaocuocibiaomingshuangfangfenqiyirancunzai,youmeitibaodaocheng,deheilanyitichuzishendetiaojianqingdan,bingqiangtiaoduihuoermuzihaixiadezhuquanquanli。zhezhongbuquedingxingweikongtoucaozuotigonglezhiyue,yeweishichangdailaiyidingdibuzhicheng。
除了地緣因素,基本麵數據同樣對油價形成壓力。美國能源信息署(EIA)數據顯示,上周美國商業原油庫存增加692wantong,muqiankucunzongliangyigaoyuwunianpingjunshuiping,zaixuqiudanjiduiyoujiagouchengshizhixingyazhi。buguo,gongyingduandejiegouxingfengxianyirancunzai。huoermuzihaixiadehangyunzhongduanfengxianshangweijiechu,daodaernengyuanshouxizhixingguanjinggaocheng,quanqiuyue20%的原油出口集中於波斯灣,若這一貿易瓶頸的能源流動持續受阻,其影響可能超過2022年的歐洲能源危機。
zhanwanghoushi,dangqianshichangzhengchuyuyuqijiaoyiyuxianshifengxiandelajuzhizhong。duanqinei,suizhemeiguokucunleijijitanpantuijin,youjiamianlinhuitiaoyali。zhongqieryan,youjiadezouxiangrengyuhuoermuzihaixiadejushimiqiexiangguan。ruohangyunzhongduanfengxianweidedaogenbenjiejue,youjiananyichuxianqushixingxiaxing;若ruo談tan判pan破po裂lie或huo局ju勢shi再zai度du升sheng級ji,市shi場chang可ke能neng迅xun速su重zhong新xin計ji入ru更geng高gao的de安an全quan溢yi價jia。建jian議yi投tou資zi者zhe關guan注zhu美mei伊yi雙shuang方fang官guan方fang表biao態tai的de變bian化hua及ji海hai峽xia通tong航hang情qing況kuang,預yu計ji油you價jia將jiang維wei持chi寬kuan幅fu震zhen蕩dang。
